Oct 2015

Hotwired Destiny

Aging is the disease which assuredly gets us all.

Life with no fixed expiry date

THE PURPOSE OF LIFE

From a universal perspective, life is an information set that happens to possess agency. We are self-propelled gatherers and processors of data, flung forward by time’s arrow and a trillion iterations. 

For aeons this was the status quo; the gene was the most robust means of storing, processing, and propagating information. The development of the neocortex enabled a shift to new forms of information, such as Dawkins’ meme. Memes are far less robust in geological terms, but vastly faster in their ability to shift, iterate, and influence entire populations -- even the ecosystem itself.

We are machines with a form designed for evolution over countless millennia, and yet we have attained the ability to reinvent ourselves over decades. Arguably, our ability for language even gives us the power to alter genes with mere harsh words.

WHY WE AGE

Since the dawn of human culture we have experienced ageing as an unfortunate yet inescapable part of the human condition. Only recently has a disease model of ageing become popular. Yet ageing is not strictly a disease; it is a byproduct of the nature of our form. We experience it as a bug, but it was intended as a feature.

Nature routinely creates situations where an individual organism suffers while the strength of the overall species improves over time. The fate of one organism is meaningless; even species come and go. What matters is that the best genes remain -- that the most functional and fit genes successfully self-propagate.

Once an organism has successfully propagated, there is no evolutionary use left for it. 

Higher primates may find niche roles for grandparents, as indeed a creature may bear multiple broods within one lifespan, but from the perspective of information, having achieved our evolutionary duty (like the trillion or so that came before us in the great chain), we are superfluous. 

This is why we are programmed to experience an early form of biodegradation while still functional. The decay of ageing allows younger variants within a species to overtake their forebears -- experience tested against strength in a struggle for supremacy.

However, just as we gained the ability to evolve culture alongside genetics, and we wove cultural factors into our genetic expression, we have an opportunity in the coming generation or so, to take command of our programmed propensity to overripen and rot.

MEMENTO MORI

For the first time, we are beginning to unlock new techniques of anti-ageing therapy. Promising methods already achieved include extending telomeres in human cells in vitro at Stanford. Alphabet’s California Life Company was established with a remit to discover actionable anti-ageing techniques, and this new field is in the process of moving from science fiction to clinical practice.

Such a fountain of youth will seem like colossal hubris to many. None other than Craig Venter, who has done so much to advance genetic science, claims that to live to 120 may be socially irresponsible. The current rate of social and scientific progress may necessitate that those old codgers, set in their ways, shuffle off the mortal coil and make way for more malleable minds.

It’s a fair point, but we may not have a choice. We need to hold on to the citizens of today for a very long time, to ensure a carrying capacity for civilisation for the children of tomorrow.

AGEING: THE CRISIS OF OUR TIME

The post-war economic boom was concurrent with the development of antibiotics and the green revolution. This created a demographic burst that doubled the number of human minds in only half a century. The collapse of Soviet Russia and the opening up of China added another 1.5 Billion workers to the global labour pool. For a generation or so, humans were in abundance. Labour was cheap.

We are at a turnabout. There are now more people globally over the age of 65 than under the age of 5.

Chart, The vanishing worker: annual % change in the working-age population of China, Britain, the European Union, Japan and the United States from 1970, with forecasts to 2050 in which China, Japan and the European Union fall below zero

Via: The Economist

The coming decades will see a steep decline in the working-age population (20-60 years), as birth rates have decreased steadily with increased wealth. This arrives alongside unprecedented rates of automation, particularly in China, now the world’s greatest investor in automation. Outsourcing tasks to intelligent machines will create new and better jobs in time, but huge churn in the interim.

Many traditional occupations will disappear or radically alter. The youngest and most talented will have the best chance of surviving the shift. At the same time, a vast surge in needy elders will arrive, most of them in low- and middle-income nations. Despite innovations in robots for geriatric care, the human element cannot be negated. The needs of the elderly cannot be met by a shrinking working-age population, and this demographic crisis threatens to bankrupt our global civilisation.

Chart, Record Curve for the men’s 100 yard freestyle: record swim times plotted against age, flat at about 44 seconds at age 21 and curving steeply upward to about 87 seconds at age 92

Exponential Decline of physical performance versus age. Via: Vaswim.org

THE SILVER BULLET

But there is another way. Ageing is an exponential process -- we degrade progressively, and our propensity for disease increases alongside. What if we could arrest this process, or at least make the gradient more sublime?

Making the gradient more sublime: what a shallower decline buys Physical performance falls with age along an exponential curve. Two curves start together in early adulthood. The unarrested one, drawn dashed, falls away steeply and drops below the level at which a person stays productive and useful shortly after the end of conventional working age. The second curve, the essay’s proposal, declines on a shallower gradient and stays above that same level for decades longer. The gap between the two crossing points is the essay’s whole case: those extra decades of productive life are what it offers against a demographic crisis in which the working-age population is collapsing. The vertical scale carries no numbers, because the essay states none. PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE WORKING AGE, 20 TO 60 PRODUCTIVE THRESHOLD, SCHEMATIC ageing, unarrested the gradient made more sublime 20 40 60 80 100 AGE (YEARS) decades longer
A shallower gradient keeps people productive and useful for decades longer. The essay’s own proposal, drawn schematically. Ageing is an exponential process, so arresting it, or at least making the gradient more sublime, moves the point at which a person falls out of productive life. The shaded span carries the whole demographic argument, because the thing the essay says is about to collapse is the population of working age, 20 to 60. Neither curve nor threshold carries a number: the essay states none, and its one quantity is those decades.

By embracing anti-ageing technologies, we can make people productive and useful for decades longer. We can enjoy the benefits of experience and strength in one. Who knows what further wonders we might enjoy today had Da Vinci or Tesla had a few decades extra.

By committing to fight our fated falling-apart, we can create a second renaissance. The past few years have seen an explosive growth in the number of labs studying ageing, from perhaps 20 at the turn of the century to more than 400 today.Conquering the one disease that haunts every one of us is very soon to be a big, big business.

Interested in learning more about experimental anti-ageing treatments that you can try today? Check out longecity.org


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